Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230626 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00     63.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  24.9  23.3  18.9  25.7  20.3  29.8  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  36.0  31.0  26.0  27.0  28.0  19.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 121.5 119.4 119.4 115.5 115.5 109.8 102.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  19.0  21.0  41.0  43.0  61.0  32.0  72.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        0.7%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        0.6%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        1.9%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 AL042023 230626 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00     63.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  24.9  23.3  18.9  25.7  20.3  29.8  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%