Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230627 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  30.4  26.9  20.7  36.0  35.1  46.5  44.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  25.0  20.0  14.0  10.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.4 117.4 111.6 111.6 104.4  91.5  84.4  77.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   9.0  10.0  62.0  15.0  62.0  47.0  46.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.28

 AL042023 230627 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.