Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052023 230720 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     40.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  16.0  19.3  21.5  23.1  16.4  17.5  15.8  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.4  60.4  61.7  63.0  60.4  56.7  50.9  37.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -17.0 -19.0  -5.0  39.0  13.0 -38.0 -45.0  U  U  U  U  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  46.0  44.0  43.0  39.0  38.0  36.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.26

 AL052023 230720 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     40.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.