Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052023 230720 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 42.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 23.4 20.0 23.5 18.7 19.8 17.4 16.9 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.7 63.0 59.2 60.4 53.2 50.9 37.4 12.7 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -10.0 -4.0 33.0 -1.0 -32.0 0.0 15.0 U U U N U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 44.0 45.0 44.0 39.0 38.0 38.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 -2.0 3.0 -1.0 -4.0 4.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.16 AL052023 230720 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 42.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.