Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052023 230724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     47.30     41.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         17.1  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0 -38.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 16.12

 AL052023 230724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     47.30     41.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.