Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062023 230819 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 49.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 37.3 38.5 43.0 55.1 50.1 48.1 43.7 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 36.0 33.0 32.0 33.0 40.0 46.0 51.0 N U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 114.4 116.5 118.6 118.6 125.1 125.1 127.3 127.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 16.0 32.0 38.0 78.0 50.0 18.0 8.0 VU U N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 39.0 41.0 43.0 45.0 49.0 51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.60 AL062023 230819 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 49.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 37.3 38.5 43.0 55.1 50.1 48.1 43.7 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 39.0 41.0 43.0 45.0 49.0 51.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 2.8% 0.2% 1.5%