Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062023 230820 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 50.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.5 45.6 50.2 53.7 62.2 57.0 57.0 57.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 31.0 34.0 46.0 66.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 U U U N N N N N Potential [kt] 120.7 122.9 125.1 127.3 132.0 134.3 134.3 134.3 N N N N F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 35.0 57.0 43.0 31.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 43.0 45.0 47.0 52.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 -2.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.88 AL062023 230820 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 50.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.5 45.6 50.2 53.7 62.2 57.0 57.0 57.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 43.0 45.0 47.0 52.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 -2.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 5.7% 0.3% 3.0%