Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     53.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  47.0  54.6  55.7  55.7  55.7  55.7  55.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  39.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 129.6 132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  66.0  59.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.2%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 AL062023 230820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     53.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  47.0  54.6  55.7  55.7  55.7  55.7  55.7 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        6.2%        0.4%        3.3%