Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     54.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.0  51.4  50.0  47.8  47.8  47.8  47.8  47.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  48.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.3 132.0 132.0 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  61.0  62.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        0.7%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 AL062023 230820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     54.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.0  51.4  50.0  47.8  47.8  47.8  47.8  47.8 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        4.9%        0.3%        2.6%