Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.9  46.6  46.6  46.6  46.6  46.6  46.6  46.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%        0.7%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 AL062023 230821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.9  46.6  46.6  46.6  46.6  46.6  46.6  46.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        5.2%        0.3%        2.8%