Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     56.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.8  45.6  45.6  45.6  45.6  45.6  45.6  45.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        0.8%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 AL062023 230821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     56.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.8  45.6  45.6  45.6  45.6  45.6  45.6  45.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        5.1%        0.4%        2.7%