Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.5  42.8  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.0 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  22.0  32.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.4%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL062023 230821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.5  42.8  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        3.2%        0.3%        1.8%