Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     57.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.7  44.6  44.7  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  61.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        137.0 139.3 139.3 139.3 139.3 139.3 139.3 139.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   9.0  19.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       16.0%        1.4%        8.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 AL062023 230821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     57.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.7  44.6  44.7  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  36.8 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.6%        0.2%        0.4%