Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     58.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.5  42.5  36.4  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  66.0  67.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        139.3 140.0 139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  23.0  45.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h       15.9%        3.8%        9.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 AL062023 230822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     58.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.5  42.5  36.4  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%