Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     58.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.8%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       11.8%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        5.6%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        2.9%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h       34.6%       14.2%       24.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 AL062023 230822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     58.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%