Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.4%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        7.4%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        3.6%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        1.7%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       28.7%       10.2%       19.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 AL062023 230822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%