Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     59.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  21.1  21.6  21.7  21.5  25.9  23.4  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        137.0 137.0 137.0 139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -2.0   4.0  16.0  33.0   8.0  35.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       12.4%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.4%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.6%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.6%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       21.0%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%        9.9%        9.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        6.3%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       31.5%       22.5%       27.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 AL062023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     59.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  21.1  21.6  21.7  21.5  25.9  23.4  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%