Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     58.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  17.1  18.3  21.6  20.2  26.3  25.1  32.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  60.0  58.0  65.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  37.0   0.0   2.0  29.0  12.0  27.0 -15.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       16.3%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        6.0%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       28.5%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%       14.4%       14.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.7%       10.5%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h       36.0%       28.4%       32.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 AL062023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     58.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  17.1  18.3  21.6  20.2  26.3  25.1  32.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%