Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.8  20.1  18.3  18.7  26.9  25.1  35.9  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  65.0  80.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0   7.0   0.0  33.0 -20.0  32.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  U  U  N VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   5.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       16.6%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        5.9%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       28.9%       17.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       16.7%       14.1%       15.4%
 70kt / 48h       12.6%       10.2%       11.4%
 65kt / 72h       35.9%       25.2%       30.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 AL062023 230824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.8  20.1  18.3  18.7  26.9  25.1  35.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   5.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%