Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  23.5  28.3  25.0  25.1  33.2  34.6  39.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  62.0  68.0  74.0  58.0  76.0  72.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  54.0  41.0  50.0  -6.0  20.0  -9.0  17.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        9.6%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       15.9%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%        6.2%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        3.7%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h       20.0%       10.8%       15.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL062023 230825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  23.5  28.3  25.0  25.1  33.2  34.6  39.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%