Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.0  22.4  19.2  29.9  31.2  40.2  36.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  67.0  72.0  66.0  61.0  77.0  72.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  76.0  58.0  26.0  26.0  27.0  -6.0  20.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       13.0%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.3%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.5%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.5%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       18.8%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%        8.9%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%        5.7%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h       23.2%       14.2%       18.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 AL062023 230826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.0  22.4  19.2  29.9  31.2  40.2  36.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%