Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  29.8  31.7  36.2  40.3  48.6  43.2  54.1  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  29.0  31.0  33.0  37.0  15.0  15.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 139.3 139.3 134.6 123.6 117.4 104.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  58.0  46.0  16.0   2.0 -14.0  48.0  94.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   4.0   5.0  -8.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 AL062023 230830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  29.8  31.7  36.2  40.3  48.6  43.2  54.1  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   4.0   5.0  -8.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%