Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  32.4  35.3  35.1  40.9  43.6  40.3  36.6  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  33.0  35.0  32.0  32.0  13.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 134.3 129.6 125.1 118.6 118.6 116.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  39.0  12.0  18.0  -1.0  -7.0  49.0  76.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0   4.0 -12.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.1%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL062023 230830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  32.4  35.3  35.1  40.9  43.6  40.3  36.6  N  N  F  F VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0   4.0 -12.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%