Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  34.5  35.3  41.1  41.3  44.0  39.3  33.9  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  30.0  29.0  30.0  14.0  18.0  11.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 129.6 127.3 125.1 112.4 106.6  88.0  74.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0   7.0  44.0  10.0   2.0  66.0  54.0  24.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  54.0  42.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   3.0   7.0   1.0   5.0 -32.0 -11.0 -25.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 AL062023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  34.5  35.3  41.1  41.3  44.0  39.3  33.9  F  F  F VF VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  54.0  42.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   3.0   7.0   1.0   5.0 -32.0 -11.0 -25.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%