Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     58.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  37.7  45.7  46.1  46.8  46.2  39.0  37.7  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  33.0  33.0  31.0  17.0  17.0  14.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 129.6 127.3 122.9 120.7 118.6 114.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  23.0   0.0 -18.0  19.0  62.0  55.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL062023 230831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     58.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  37.7  45.7  46.1  46.8  46.2  39.0  37.7  F  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%