Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40     57.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  43.7  44.8  40.6  49.0  48.3  48.4  44.1  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  28.0  21.0  16.0  14.0  12.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 129.6 127.3 127.3 122.9 116.5 114.4 108.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  35.0 -11.0   0.0  56.0  25.0  44.0 -40.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  59.0  60.0  54.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   3.0   2.0 -12.0  -3.0   0.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 AL062023 230831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40     57.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  43.7  44.8  40.6  49.0  48.3  48.4  44.1  F VF VF  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  59.0  60.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   3.0   2.0 -12.0  -3.0   0.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%