Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062023 230831 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.80 57.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.0 45.5 41.3 44.6 46.7 40.5 37.1 35.8 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 29.0 21.0 16.0 16.0 15.0 12.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 129.6 127.3 127.3 122.9 118.6 116.5 110.5 103.0 F N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 18.0 -22.0 -9.0 -10.0 37.0 61.0 43.0 -42.0 U VU U U N N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 64.0 67.0 64.0 63.0 60.0 56.0 49.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 4.0 7.0 -4.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 1.0 N N N F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.14 AL062023 230831 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.80 57.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.0 45.5 41.3 44.6 46.7 40.5 37.1 35.8 VF VF VF VF VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 64.0 67.0 64.0 63.0 60.0 56.0 49.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 4.0 7.0 -4.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 1.0 N N N U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%