Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062023 230901 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 56.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 36.4 42.6 44.9 44.0 38.1 38.9 42.1 VU U VU VU VU U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 21.0 15.0 15.0 17.0 17.0 10.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 127.3 122.9 122.9 116.5 116.5 104.8 97.7 88.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 14.0 32.0 62.0 38.0 50.0 40.0 14.0 U U N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 68.0 66.0 65.0 59.0 55.0 48.0 47.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 -6.0 -10.0 -7.0 -5.0 -2.0 2.0 N N F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.94 AL062023 230901 00UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 56.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 36.4 42.6 44.9 44.0 38.1 38.9 42.1 VF F VF VF VF F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 68.0 66.0 65.0 59.0 55.0 48.0 47.0 N N N N F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 -6.0 -10.0 -7.0 -5.0 -2.0 2.0 N N U U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%