Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00     55.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  38.4  43.6  44.8  41.1  38.4  34.7  36.5  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  21.0  19.0  18.0  16.0  15.0  16.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 127.3 122.9 120.7 114.4 108.5 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  13.0  34.0  35.0  51.0   4.0  70.0  42.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0  12.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 AL062023 230901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00     55.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  38.4  43.6  44.8  41.1  38.4  34.7  36.5  F  F VF VF VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0  12.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%