Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  39.9  38.7  38.9  37.9  28.8  15.7  19.7 VU  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  37.0  32.0  26.0  19.0  17.0  12.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 127.0 124.6 124.6 120.1 115.7 101.6  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  37.0  34.0  16.0   9.0  46.0  20.0  89.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  75.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   8.0   5.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 AL062023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  39.9  38.7  38.9  37.9  28.8  15.7  19.7 VF  F  F  F  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  75.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   8.0   5.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%