Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     55.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  38.7  38.1  37.1  31.6  23.2  14.5  14.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  27.0  24.0  23.0  18.0  12.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 124.6 124.6 122.3 117.9 107.4  96.2  96.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  20.0  50.0 -12.0   2.0  41.0  37.0  37.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 AL062023 230902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     55.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  38.7  38.1  37.1  31.6  23.2  14.5  14.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%