Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     54.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  37.2  36.7  34.8  28.9  28.7  28.7  28.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  33.0  25.0  21.0  15.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 119.6 119.6 117.3 112.9 102.4 102.4 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  42.0  20.0  40.0  82.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.7%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 AL062023 230902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     54.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  37.2  36.7  34.8  28.9  28.7  28.7  28.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%