Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     54.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  37.4  34.1  31.3  28.4  11.2  11.2  11.2  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  31.0  22.0  18.0  13.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 114.6 112.3 110.1 101.5  86.2  86.2  86.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   8.0  29.0  78.0  73.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        0.9%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        4.4%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        3.0%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 AL062023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     54.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  37.4  34.1  31.3  28.4  11.2  11.2  11.2  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%