Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     53.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  34.0  30.6  28.1  25.2  25.2  25.2  25.2  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  21.0  15.0  13.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 112.3 107.9 101.5  86.2  86.2  86.2  86.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  11.0  58.0  88.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 AL062023 230902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     53.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  34.0  30.6  28.1  25.2  25.2  25.2  25.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%