Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60     53.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  33.0  28.5  26.8  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  16.0  13.0  12.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 107.9 101.5  91.6  74.6  74.6  74.6  74.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  65.0  73.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   3.0  -3.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 AL062023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60     53.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  33.0  28.5  26.8  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   3.0  -3.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%