Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062023 230903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  24.8  24.5  32.3  32.3  32.3  32.3  32.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   8.0  11.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  81.2  71.1  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  44.0  40.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  F  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.86

 AL062023 230903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.