Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072023 230820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     38.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  46.8  43.2  40.6  44.5  42.6  44.3  29.3  U VU VU  U VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  29.0  29.0  26.0  16.0  15.0  21.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  77.7  81.0  82.7  84.4  89.8  93.5  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  10.0 -20.0   1.0   5.0  16.0  54.0  27.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  53.0  58.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  16.0   8.0  10.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   4.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.38

 AL072023 230820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     38.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.