Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072023 230820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     39.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.8  43.0  40.8  41.6  44.4  49.6  52.7  32.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  29.0  26.0  25.0  18.0  11.0  16.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  81.0  82.7  84.4  88.0  93.5  99.4 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -8.0  -3.0  41.0  -9.0  24.0  34.0  11.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  45.0  51.0  57.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  11.0  10.0   7.0   2.0   5.0   0.0   7.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 AL072023 230820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     39.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.