Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072023 230821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.3  41.8  41.3  44.1  47.1  51.9  40.1  28.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  26.0  25.0  22.0  16.0  11.0  24.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.0  87.7  89.4  91.2  94.8 100.5 106.5 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  -7.0  21.0  -3.0  29.0  14.0  28.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  43.0  40.0  39.0  42.0  48.0  57.0  59.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   8.0   6.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.58

 AL072023 230821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.