Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072023 230821 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 40.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.6 42.7 46.0 49.8 48.4 55.7 36.1 24.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 27.0 24.0 20.0 12.0 15.0 20.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 94.4 96.2 98.0 103.5 109.4 115.7 115.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 26.0 1.0 19.0 21.0 40.0 46.0 -49.0 U U U U U N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 39.0 37.0 37.0 42.0 52.0 59.0 64.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.70 AL072023 230821 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 40.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.