Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072023 230822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40     46.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        59.3  58.3  43.8  33.8  22.4  16.6  15.5  18.7 VU VU VU  U  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  18.0  17.0  11.0   8.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 116.5 108.5  96.0  80.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  26.0  32.0  52.0  24.0  48.0  41.0  52.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  50.0  53.0  56.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  59.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   7.0  11.0  10.0   8.0  26.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.48

 AL072023 230822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40     46.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.