Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072023 230823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40     47.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.8  44.6  32.6  28.9  15.6  11.9  17.5  26.4 VU VU  U  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  18.0  19.0  14.0  12.0   8.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 118.6 118.6 118.6 114.4 106.6  91.1  74.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  36.0  73.0  35.0  26.0  36.0  58.0  75.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   8.0  12.0  12.0  10.0  11.0  20.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 AL072023 230823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40     47.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.8  44.6  32.6  28.9  15.6  11.9  17.5  26.4 VF VF  F  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   8.0  12.0  12.0  10.0  11.0  20.0  17.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        8.3%        0.2%        4.3%