Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072023 230823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.0  35.4  31.0  22.9  13.4  15.1  18.1  17.6 VU  U  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  24.0  21.0  17.0  11.0   9.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 115.7 113.6 111.5 101.6  84.6  71.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  78.0  30.0  36.0  35.0  71.0  74.0  15.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  61.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   9.0  11.0   5.0  16.0  19.0  16.0  N  U  U  U  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 AL072023 230823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.0  35.4  31.0  22.9  13.4  15.1  18.1  17.6 VF  F  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  61.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   9.0  11.0   5.0  16.0  19.0  16.0  N  F  F  F  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.7%        0.1%        0.9%