Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  30.3  18.4  12.3  14.6  31.7  49.7  51.9  U  N  F  F  F  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  17.0  18.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 115.7 111.5  98.0  84.6  50.9  19.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  47.0  21.0  -4.0  55.0  37.0  45.0  65.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  62.0  55.0  41.0  34.0  U  U  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   6.0  22.0  27.0  17.0  N  U  U  N  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 AL072023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  30.3  18.4  12.3  14.6  31.7  49.7  51.9  F  N  N  U  U  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  62.0  55.0  41.0  34.0  F  F  N  N  N  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   6.0  22.0  27.0  17.0  N  F  F  N  N VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%