Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072023 230823 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 49.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 20.9 15.3 14.0 18.1 37.3 49.8 53.3 N N F F F U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 16.0 15.0 13.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.7 115.7 111.5 105.5 92.7 70.4 35.8 17.6 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 20.0 -2.0 32.0 31.0 35.0 58.0 64.0 N U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 58.0 61.0 61.0 58.0 45.0 37.0 36.0 U U N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 10.0 6.0 8.0 23.0 25.0 32.0 28.0 U U N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.8% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.1% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.66 AL072023 230823 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 49.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 20.9 15.3 14.0 18.1 37.3 49.8 53.3 N N U U N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 58.0 61.0 61.0 58.0 45.0 37.0 36.0 F F N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 10.0 6.0 8.0 23.0 25.0 32.0 28.0 F F N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%