Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072023 230824 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 49.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 14.9 16.3 16.2 29.7 46.6 50.2 53.9 N F F F N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 16.0 13.0 8.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.7 111.5 107.4 101.6 81.5 62.0 32.8 20.9 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 0.0 39.0 19.0 32.0 42.0 68.0 68.0 U U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 61.0 58.0 52.0 39.0 34.0 31.0 U N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 7.0 5.0 11.0 24.0 30.0 23.0 16.0 U N N U VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.4% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.1% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 AL072023 230824 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 49.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 14.9 16.3 16.2 29.7 46.6 50.2 53.9 N U U U N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 61.0 58.0 52.0 39.0 34.0 31.0 F N N F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 7.0 5.0 11.0 24.0 30.0 23.0 16.0 F N N F VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%