Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072023 230824 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.50 49.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.50 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 15.4 15.7 17.7 36.6 49.1 52.7 49.3 F F F F U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 15.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 113.6 105.5 101.6 91.0 75.8 51.8 21.3 17.1 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -18.0 41.0 26.0 39.0 50.0 62.0 44.0 33.0 U N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 58.0 58.0 45.0 38.0 33.0 33.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 7.0 12.0 24.0 32.0 33.0 14.0 0.0 N N U VU VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.3% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.5% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.28 AL072023 230824 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.50 49.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.