Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20     48.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  16.1  18.4  20.2  34.1  42.6  45.8  40.1  F  F  F  N  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 105.5  96.2  84.6  69.2  44.2  23.9  16.5  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  27.0  45.0  49.0  74.0  50.0  64.0  62.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  41.0  38.0  36.0  34.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0  30.0  23.0  28.0  11.0  31.0  22.0  N  U VU VU VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.1%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 AL072023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20     48.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.