Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072023 230824 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.10 48.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 15.6 18.0 22.7 36.1 39.5 39.2 39.2 F F F N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 12.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.4 110.5 101.2 89.6 68.2 49.2 28.9 28.9 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 23.0 58.0 50.0 46.0 54.0 49.0 49.0 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 59.0 57.0 51.0 42.0 35.0 32.0 32.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 19.0 18.0 20.0 32.0 30.0 15.0 15.0 N VU VU VU VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.08 AL072023 230824 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.10 48.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.