Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072023 230825 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 48.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 19.1 19.8 24.0 20.6 21.9 20.0 22.7 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 7.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.5 106.6 101.2 91.1 85.0 72.9 67.0 62.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 47.0 47.0 67.0 52.0 104.0 44.0 -20.0 U N N N N F N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 56.0 51.0 44.0 41.0 41.0 43.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 18.0 18.0 22.0 11.0 7.0 4.0 2.0 U VU VU VU U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.9% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 70kt / 48h 3.1% 0.3% 1.7% 65kt / 72h 1.8% 0.4% 1.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 AL072023 230825 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 48.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.